Voting on Brexit 2019. GBP / USD Forecast

Greetings colleagues! According to the latest data, the Brexit vote has been postponed to the end of January 2019. This event is very influential, so I could not ignore it. For the entire trading community, this can be an opportunity to earn both a lot and a significant loss. In this regard, the forecast for GBP / USD will be very useful. The forecast was prepared jointly with analyst Vasily Barsukov.

“What is Brexit (from English Brexit) – Britain’s exit from the European Union is the main political goal of the conservative opposition and some individuals in the UK. The state is expected to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. ‘ Source: Wikipedia

Fundamental aspects of Brexit, expert commentary

Василий Барсуков

Vasily Barsukov is an analyst with over 20 years of experience. Repeatedly took part in the review of financial markets on the RBC channel as an expert. Traders from all over the world listen to Vasily’s opinion.

  • Vasily, what is going on with the markets at the moment in connection with the upcoming vote on Brexit?

Based on the current situation, here’s what I think: Brexit ran into bureaucratic procedures. The negotiation process is very slow and the markets are tired of it.

At the same time, now the markets are gradually taking into account the maximum negative. This means that it will be very difficult to know if there will be deterioration in this process. But any improvement will be met with heightened optimism.

The market is significantly oversold in the pound, its further decline is difficult. But there are very good prospects for growth.

  • Do you think there will be a reapeated referendum on Brexit?

There is a likelihood of a second referendum, but so far it is not higher than 50%. Even if such a prospect is considered, this is not the case for the coming months..

  • Where will this voting hype lead?

There are a number of misunderstandings that make it difficult to make a quick decision, but sooner or later the parties will agree.

Three options for the development of events for the pound / dollar pair.

Option I

The main scenario is that the growth has already begun from 1.2475, and will now continue in January-February. Targets 1.40-1.45. Probability – 70%

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Option II

Alternative option, number 2 – sluggish range activity with attempted failures and sharp rebounds, if the negotiation process drags on, as it is now. Probability – 20%

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 Option III

Alternative variant, number 3 – something unexpected and negative in the process, a sharp drop to 1.22-1.23, maybe to 1.20, but hardly lower, and then a quick rebound and a transition to the main variant. Probability – 10%

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My personal opinion on the situation

If we analyze the currency from the point of view of a trader’s approach, then I advocate further selling along the trend after corrective growth. In my practice, it is better not to hope for a reversal, but to follow the trend.

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If we analyze GBP / USD based on weekly and monthly data, then there have been no breakouts of the maximums, which means that the trend has not changed yet.

As a forecast recommendation, I would sell at 1.2660, stop loss behind 1.2775 and targets at 1.2400.

Monitored the transaction on this account –

Successful trades!

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